Community Health Overlay¶
Health Burden in Port-Adjacent Communities¶
Port emissions don't affect all communities equally. The health impact of Duluth-Superior's port operations falls disproportionately on low-income neighborhoods and communities of color located closest to terminal operations, rail yards, and the MERC coal terminal.
This analysis maps health outcomes at census tract resolution within three radii from port operations: 1 mile, 3 miles, and 5 miles.
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Data Sources¶
| Source | Publisher | Data Provided | Access |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDC PLACES | CDC | Census-tract-level health estimates: asthma, COPD, heart disease, cancer prevalence | cdc.gov/places |
| EJScreen | EPA | Environmental justice screening indicators by census tract | ejscreen.epa.gov |
| Community Health Needs Assessment | St. Louis County PHHS | County-level health priorities, access to care, chronic disease burden | stlouiscountymn.gov |
| Minnesota Health Data | MN Dept of Health | State health statistics, vital records, disease surveillance | health.state.mn.us |
| American Community Survey | U.S. Census Bureau | Demographics, income, poverty, housing by census tract | census.gov |
| Fond du Lac Band Health | Fond du Lac Band | Tribal health data for members within the St. Louis River watershed | Tribal government coordination |
Tribal Health Data
The Fond du Lac Band of Lake Superior Chippewa maintains sovereign authority over tribal health data. Any health impact analysis involving tribal populations is conducted in coordination with tribal health authorities and with appropriate data sovereignty protections. The Fond du Lac Band maintains cultural and ecological ties to the St. Louis River estuary that extend beyond the epidemiological data captured in federal health databases.
Health Impact Quantification¶
Using BenMAP-CE methodology with Krewski et al. 2009 concentration-response functions and EPA VSL ($11.8M, 2024-adjusted):
Annual Health Outcomes (92,000 residents within 3 miles)¶
| Health Outcome | Low Estimate | Central Estimate | High Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premature deaths | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Cardiovascular hospitalizations | 8 | 14 | 20 |
| Respiratory hospitalizations | 5 | 8 | 12 |
| Asthma ED visits | 12 | 21 | 30 |
| Lost work days | 850 | 1,400 | 2,100 |
Monetized Health Damages — $42.6 Million/Year¶
| Category | Annual Cost |
|---|---|
| Mortality (EPA VSL) | $35.4M |
| Morbidity (hospitalizations, ED visits) | $5.8M |
| Productivity losses (work days) | $1.4M |
| Total | $42.6M |
With Shore Power Deployment¶
| Outcome | Avoided/Year |
|---|---|
| Premature deaths avoided | 1–5 |
| Hospitalizations avoided | 5–19 |
| ED visits avoided | 8–29 |
| Health damages avoided | $28.4M/year |
Census Tract Analysis¶
Port-Adjacent Communities — Health & Vulnerability Profile¶
| Community | Census Tract | Population | EJ Index | PM2.5 Exposure (µg/m³) | Low Income (%) | Asthma Prevalence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln Park | 27137001500 | 5,200 | 82 | 12.4 | 68% | Elevated |
| Superior Waterfront | 55031000100 | 10,200 | 78 | 13.1 | 61% | Elevated |
| West Duluth | 27137001600 | 8,100 | 75 | 11.8 | 52% | Moderate |
| Morgan Park | 27137002100 | 2,400 | 71 | 10.2 | 45% | Moderate |
| Gary-New Duluth | 27137002200 | 2,100 | 69 | 9.8 | 42% | Moderate |
| Central Hillside | 27137001200 | 6,800 | 65 | 8.5 | 58% | Moderate |
| North Superior | 55031000200 | 7,200 | 62 | 7.9 | 39% | Baseline |
Environmental Justice Hotspot: Lincoln Park
Lincoln Park (EJ Index: 82) has the highest environmental justice burden of any census tract in the port area. Located directly adjacent to the port industrial zone, residents face:
- 68% low-income population
- 12.4 µg/m³ average PM2.5 — approaching the WHO guideline of 15 µg/m³
- Proximity to both port terminal operations and rail yards
- Limited access to healthcare facilities
- Housing stock with poor weatherization (increasing indoor PM2.5 exposure)
Analytical Outputs¶
1. Health Burden Heatmap¶
Spatial overlay of CDC PLACES health estimates (asthma prevalence, COPD, cardiovascular disease) with EJScreen environmental indicators at census tract resolution. Identifies specific tracts where cumulative health and environmental burden exceeds screening thresholds.
2. Environmental Justice Index¶
Composite EJ index for each census tract combining:
- EPA EJScreen percentiles (PM2.5 exposure, diesel particulate matter, proximity to hazardous waste)
- CDC Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) indicators
- Census ACS income and poverty data
- Proximity to port emission sources (distance-weighted)
The port area average EJ index is 72 (on a 0–100 scale), with Lincoln Park, Superior Waterfront, and West Duluth exceeding the 75th percentile threshold for elevated environmental justice concern.
3. Demographic Vulnerability Profile¶
| Metric | Port Area (3-mi) | Duluth Metro | Minnesota | National |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poverty rate | 22.4% | 16.8% | 10.3% | 12.4% |
| Median household income | $38,200 | $52,400 | $77,700 | $75,100 |
| % minority population | 18% | 12% | 21% | 39% |
| Uninsured rate | 8.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 8.6% |
| Asthma prevalence (adults) | 11.3% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% |
The port-adjacent population has significantly higher poverty, lower income, and elevated asthma prevalence compared to city, state, and national averages.
4. West Duluth Focus Area¶
West Duluth — home to over 8,000 residents — sits between bulk cargo terminals to the east and rail yards to the south. The neighborhood experiences:
- Cumulative exposure from port emissions + rail diesel + industrial sources
- Historical contamination from legacy industrial operations
- Limited buffer zone between residential housing and active terminal operations
- Air quality that measurably worsens during peak shipping months (May–August)
West Duluth is a priority community for targeted monitoring deployment and a candidate for shore power installation impact modeling.
Health Trends (2019–2025)¶
| Year | Asthma Rate (%) | COPD Rate (%) | Cardiovascular Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 5.1 |
| 2020 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 5.3 |
| 2021 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 5.2 |
| 2022 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 5.4 |
| 2023 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 5.5 |
| 2024 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 5.6 |
| 2025 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 5.7 |
Asthma and COPD prevalence rates within 3 miles of port operations show a steady upward trend, with asthma rates now exceeding the national average by 3.5 percentage points.
Last updated: April 2026
Data sources: CDC PLACES, EPA EJScreen, U.S. Census ACS, St. Louis County PHHS Community Health Needs Assessment, MN Dept of Health